There are just two days to go before Brazil decides who will be its next President, but the country’s fading regulated gaming market appears to have little hope of a full revival.
Stakeholders in the country were rocked last month when President Lula Da Silva published a provisional measure that forced the shutdown of licensed gambling operators on 5 October, citing the industry’s role in spiking debt levels in Brazil.
Since then, neither Lula nor chief opponent Flavio Bolsonaro have gained enough voter share to emerge victorious in the election, necessitating a runoff vote on Sunday (25 October).
A victory for Lula all but seals the long-term prohibition, although the provisional measure must survive scrutiny by Congress and legal action from organisations such as the ANJL.
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has given some indication that he would be open to reinstating the sports betting portion of the market while maintaining a ban on online gaming.
Though the latter was earmarked as a marginal favourite to usurp the sitting President, accusations that Bolsonaro is linked to gambling embezzlement have rocked voters.
The Federal Police are now investigating Bolsonaro’s relationship with the Lawyer Willer Tomaz, who is reported to have allegedly been a money mule for funds processed via online gambling platforms.
The lawyer is referred to as a “friend of Flávio”, according to reporting by the investigative magazine Piaui, and the investigation is examining whether their relationship involved financial and business connections attached to the money laundering scheme.
The investigation will also question Bolsonaro on why he failed to declare an ‘indirect stake’ in Best Bet, operated by Rede Loto and authorised under a licence from the Rio de Janeiro State Lottery (LOTERJ).
Rede Loto is majority owned by Cathedral Holdings, a Portugal-based business in which Tomaz is a partner.
Both men have denied wrongdoing related to the accusations made as part of the investigation.
Tax revenue spikes in months before ban
President Lula’s decision to pursue a ban on Brazil’s gambling market was taken despite the financial performance of the sector for the government.
Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service revealed that the government collected R$11.1bn (£1.64bn) in tax revenue between January and September 2026, a more than 55% increase compared to the same period in 2025, which was the first nine months of the market.
The figure also surpasses the total tax revenue generated in all of 2025, which was R$10bn £1.48bn).
Given the financial success of the market, optimism still remains that there will be a path for it to return, no matter how the election plays out.
Speaking on Entain’s investor call, Chief Executive Officer Stella David said that she believes the country will ‘reopen in some form or another’.
David added: “Our intention is to reopen in Brazil, but seeing what the framework looks like when it eventually happens, and making sure that we’re doing it with the appropriate level of investment to be, what I call, proportionate and sensible.
“I can’t predict what’s going to happen, but I think one of the things that I can say is our brand, Sportingbet, is a great brand. It’s been around a long time in Brazil, it’s got one of the best equities, and it’s predominantly a sports brand. It’s about 70% sports. So if the market came back and it was sports only, then I think we’d be well set for that.”